Author Topic: European Union  (Read 3234 times)

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hobnobs

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European Union
« on: January 03, 2012, 09:48:03 AM »
Hi I have just signed back in and managed to remember my password! I am Interested to know if all the hype we are hearing in Australia regarding Britain's referendum on withdrawing from the Eu is eminent . Do you think the Eu will break up? (Just had the news on here). Is the feeling yes Britain does want out? It is hard to get a real picture of what is really happening . :D

Fly

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Re: European Union
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2012, 10:33:26 AM »
Hi hobnobs, welcome to chesterfield online  :)

I haven't got answers to your questions though  :-X
Personally I don't think we will leave the EU.
I don't think Gov will ask the people what they want.
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Alsatian

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Re: European Union
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2012, 03:17:36 PM »
Personally I don't think we will leave the EU.
I don't think Gov will ask the people what they want.

Me neither! Welcome from me too hobnob  ;)
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therealjr

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Re: European Union
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2012, 05:58:41 PM »
The Eu will not break up for one simple reason. The French can't afford it to. The CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) allows your average French Farmer to stroll out to his fields for a couple of hours a day with his bread, brie and 20 Galouise and still make a fortune growing things nobody wants to buy.
If the EU goes, the CAP goes and the French economy goes down the pissoir.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 08:28:14 PM by therealjr »
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Fly

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Re: European Union
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2012, 06:15:49 PM »
Will, or can 'we' opt out.
I realise we can't just walk without repercussions. What would they be ?
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hobnobs

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Re: European Union
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2012, 07:29:11 AM »
Will, or can 'we' opt out.
I realise we can't just walk without repercussions. What would they be ?

I also think we just could not leave the EU but hearing the news here it is like we want our full independence back, and it as all gone to the dogs. There does to be a lot of resentment toward the EU. I agree with another poster regarding the French. Three years ago I was in Germany and the staff at the hotel we stayed in told us they didn't want the Euro or the EU. It was interesting to hear their point of view which didn't seem to be that different from my family and friends in England.
It would be interesting to see what happened if other Eu countries were given a referendum.

therealjr

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Re: European Union
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2012, 08:42:38 AM »
Will, or can 'we' opt out.
I realise we can't just walk without repercussions. What would they be ?

Technically we can't 'opt' out, the EU constitution says the other 27 countries have to agree to us going and as we are the 2nd largest contributor to their budgets what do you think the chances are?
I assume also there are clauses which prevent us from simply stopping paying.
If we did find a loophole that allowed us to quit then the eu would be within their rights to start charging tariffs on UK imports (we export approx 50% of our manufacturing output to the EU). These tariffs could make our goods prohibitively expensive whch would mean we would have balance of payments issues and would need to quickly find new markets. Also it's unlikely we would get foreign investement from the Far East (Toyota Nissan Honda etc etc) if they can't ship their goods tariff free to the EU.
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k4blades

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Re: European Union
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2012, 01:11:53 PM »
I think most people would want us to stay in the EU as a trading block, which was what was originally voted on in the referendum back in the 70s. However, most people in polls say that they want radical reform, and those results are reflected in many countries across Europe.
The idea of us all working together is a good one, but there needs to be more flexibility, so that countries can opt out of particular rules. Currently if a country doesn't agree with a decision they tend to ignore the rules, except us of course.
The real problem with the EU is the institution itself, massively bureaucratic, fraudulent and wasteful, nothing more than a gravy train for failed politicians, which is why no matter what the public want, politicians carry on supporting it. How obscene is it that their own auditors refuse to sign off the accounts, as they have done for many years now, simply because they don't know where all the money has gone. And yet our politicians continue to pay money in on a scale that makes the expenses scandal look like peanuts.

If we were to leave, or insist on changing things radically, there's nothing anyone could do really. If we stop paying in, then they can't really do much about it, if they fine us for not following a particular protocol, we could refuse to pay the fine...something France has done many times. Ultimately then yes, they could add tariffs to our exports, but trade works both ways and most EU countries are heavily dependent on the UK importing stuff from them too, so a trade war is very unlikely as both sides need each others business. A recent report by LSE (I think) suggested that in a couple of decades we would be the biggest economy in Europe, bigger than France or Germany, not just because our trade is more open / less bureaucratic than on the continent, but also, many of the booming countries....China, African continent, etc, have closer links to our culture / language so we should not be too afraid of any falling out with the EU.
The Loose cannon is always France as they tend to rule with their hearts rather than their heads. I think it was during the Iraq war they tried a trade embargo on the US as they disagreed with it. This did France a lot more harm than the US as France then found it hard to import any cheap goods from the US that they wanted, but at the same time, French goods, (Champagne and cheese basically), wouldn't sell in the US. Most countries across Europe take a much more pragmatic approach.
I think what happens with the EU in general in the future, will depend mainly on what happens to the Euro currency, and that's not looking positive, but many politicians have their heads in the sand about the issue, and it will be the markets that ultimately deal the final blows.

 

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