Will Chesterfield be a microcosm ?

[therealjr]

In recent history Chesterfield has bucked the trend when it comes to elections.
When everyone else in the 80's and early 90's was voting Tory we steadfastly stuck with labour. When the country elected a modernised new labour government we stuck with a left wing Mp. When Labour were voted back in (twice) we voted lib dem. then when labour were voted out and the lib dems joined the govt we went back to voting labour!!
This time I think it's a pity that Chesterfield don't announced their result till around 3am (bunch of amateurs, bring back Tony Walls!!!!)because I think we could provide a real indication as to how the rest of the country is going.
Here's what I think.
Labour will poll around 18000. Why? Because that's about what they've polled win OR lose in the last few elections..
So if they poll substantially more than that, back to the days of Benn (24k) or Varley (30k) they are in for a good night.
The lib dems ought to poll around 15k. Around that and they won't have as bad a night as predicted. More than that and they might confound expectations.  Much less and they stand to be wiped out.
The Tories will poll around 3k. If they can get to 7-8k they are in for a better night. Less and they are in trouble.
Ukip really shouldn't poll well round here so if they get more than a token vote (anything in excess of 3k) they will be in for a good night.
But no doubt well before we declare Jeremy Vine will already know who is doing what!!!

[Slacker]

In the 4 elections since the General LibDems have polled fewer and finished fourth in the EU well behind UKIP though obviously in that and the U there was an extremely poor turnout.
Will be interested to see tomorrow how many candidates the various parties are fielding in the council election,  Labour has 48, TUSC has 4 (last count), in terms of microcosms Staveley Independents are the SNP and I suspect LibDems, Tories and UKIP may just field one candidate in some seats.